Research on the Relation Between Population Structure, Exchange Rate and Economic Growth Rate
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| Title | Research on the Relation Between Population Structure, Exchange Rate and Economic Growth Rate
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| Author | Chang ZhongZe and Mao Pei |
| Organization | Central University of Finance and Economics |
| Email | zhz_chang@163.com；mao_pei@sohu.com |
| Key Words | "Barraza Samuelson effect; Population profit; Over lapping generation models; Demand of non tradable goods |
| Abstract | In the context of the new normal, China's economic growth rate down, the population structure is distorted, domestic supply and demand imbalance, the external environment is more complex and other issues are very prominent. This paper tries to explain the relationship between exchange rate fluctuation and economic growth, from the angle of population structure, with the method of "two division of Barraza Samuelson in the" Diamond effect "Over lapping generation models" based on the theory, from the supply and demand analysis of population structure of the real effective exchange rate of China's influence. This paper uses cointegration method to measure the proportion of children and old people on China's real effective exchange rate index, the study found: increasing the proportion of children and old people has a positive effect on the real effective exchange rate, and the impact on the exchange rate of the elderly population is much higher than that of children, prove the existence of a long-term relationship between population structure, exchange rate change and economic growth. |
| Serial Number | WP1206 |
| Time | 2017-07-20 |
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