Abstract： In this paper， we analyze the relationship between the adjustment mechanism of nominal interest to inflation gap (output gap) and the asymmetric preference of central bank， taking into account the recession avoidance preferences and inflation avoidance preferences of central bank. On this basis， we test the linearity of monetary policy rule， and then we estimate the smooth transition regression model of monetary policy rule， which transition function is hyperbolic tangent function. We find that the monetary policy rule is obvious nonlinear and interest rate reaction function is a concave function of the inflation gap and the output gap. On this basis， we test the type of central bank’s asymmetric preferences and find recession avoidance preferences exists when central bank implements monetary policies.
Key Words： Monetary Policy; Inflation; Output Gap; Nominal Interest Rate

Abstract： We investigate the interactions between the real estate market and the business cycle volatility in China over the past two decades. A Bayesian DSGE model with nominal stickiness and collateral constraints is estimated. It is found that shocks from the housing market (e.g.， loan-to-value ratio and housing preference shocks) affect the macroeconomy of China. The interactive feedback between credit constraints and housing prices amplifies the impact of various economic shocks， which plays an important role in explaining Chinese business cycle volatility. The empirical results suggest that government should rely on marketoriented measures to influence the real estate market， as well as enforce differential credit policies for rigid demand and speculative demand on house.
Key Words： House Prices; Business Cycle; DSGE

Abstract： Chinese companies' leverage has risen up since 2008 financial crisis， but does high leverage mean excessed leverage？ And whose leverage is more likely excessed between SOEs and NonSOEs？ This paper examines the relationship between state ownership and excess leverage， rather than the relationship between state ownership and leverage itself. Results show that compared to NonSOEs， SOEs leverage are more likely to be higher than the long term leverage target， which suggests that SOEs are more likely to have excess leverage from the long run and dynamic aspect. But SOEs are also more likely to have a lower interest coverage ratio， which suggests that SOEs' leverage is more likely to be excessed from the short term or static aspect. Further tests show that firms' excess leverage situation is consistent from dynamic aspect and static aspect， but state ownership weakens this relationship， suggesting that state ownership provide implicit guarantee for SOEs dynamic leverage risk.
Key Words： Target Leverage； Excess Leverage； Interest Coverage Ratio； Government Implicit Guarantee

Abstract： As big data are widely used today， whether and how to use big data in macroeconomic forecast has become a new field of economic research. In macro economy analysis， two types of data can be applied， namely the structured data and unstructured information. Government statistics are well structured while Internet search behavior information belongs to non-structured information. This research uses 6 types of models to forecast the macroeconomic aggregate. By comparing different models， the optimal forecast model is selected. We find that the Internet search behavior can help forecast the macro economy， but only conditionally on the appropriate way of model selection. We find that the correct way for variables selection with structured and unstructured information is the “Two-step Method”. Firstly only the government statistics are used and the preliminary optimal models are selected. Secondly， the internet search behaviors are added into these models and the final optimal models are determined.
Key Words： Internet Search Behavior; Macro Economy; Forecast; “Two-step Method”

Abstract： From the perspective of financial endogeneity， a revised neoclassical economic growth model is used to study the internal mechanism between the formation of optimal financial structure and economic growth， especially the evolutionary trajectory， deviation and recovery of optimal financial structure. Furthermore， we propose an analytical framework for investigating the relationship between financial structure and economic growth. Using the provincial panel data from 1996 to 2012 in China， we examine the evolving marginal effects of financial structure. With the formation of capital， there exists the evolving optimal financial structure that matches the different development of the real economy， and the optimal financial structure of one country is determined by the structure of factor endowments rather than simply depends on the stage of economic growth. Finally， using the ratio of stock value traded to financial institutions loans as the proxy of financial structure， the empirical results of panel quantile regression show that the marginal effect of financial structure is significantly positive， and it presents a dynamic evolution with the “ladder” inverted “U” type in the process of economic growth.
Key Words： Financial Structure; Economic Growth; Marginal Effect; Panel Quantile Regression

Abstract： The information and communication technology (ICT) has both a substitution effect and pervasiveness effect on economic growth. The technological progress brings the continuous price fall of ICT products， which in turn results in the substitution of ICT capital for nonICT capital. Meanwhile， as a general purpose technology (GPT)， ICT has the character of pervasiveness， and are applied in almost all the other sectors， which would bring the improvement of TFP and economic growth. Within the framework of growth accounting formed by Jorgensen and OECD， the economic growth of China during the period 1977—2012 is divided into different sources. The substitution and pervasiveness effects of ICT are further analyzed based on the measurement results. It is indicated that： (1) the contribution of ICT capital can be attributed as the substitution effect of ICT， which is only 3.4% on average. However， the contribution is significantly improved since 1990， and reaches a level of 9.83% during 2010—2012， almost that of TFP. (2) the pervasiveness effect of ICT would is confirmed with Granger Causality Test. China is entering a state of “New Normal”. To keep a moderate high growth rate while transforming the economic growth pattern， we should get rid of the dependence on investment. And ICT would be an important support for China's future growth.
Key Words： Information and Communication Technology (ICT)；General Purpose Technology (GPT)；Substitution Effect；Pervasiveness Effect；Growth Accounting

Abstract： Based on the theoretical analysis of the effects of foreign direct investment (FDI) on wage inequality， the paper calculates contributions of relevant factors， particularly FDI， to wage inequality in enterpriselevel by using the regressionbased decomposition approach (Shapley value). Theoretical analysis shows that the wage gap between foreign and local firms which caused by FDI through labor transfer and technology spillover effects presents an inverted Ushaped feature. Empirical analysis shows FDI has great influence on China's wage inequality which contributed over 10 percent to the wage gap， however， there is a sharp decline in the overall trend. The chief reason is that the wage gap between foreign and local firms which caused by FDI through labor transfer and technology spillover has entered the downward phase. Thus， in order to reduce the wage gap between enterprises， longstanding marketaccess barriers in China should be dismantled to attract more companies with high technological levels.
Key Words： FDI; Wage Inequality; Theil Index; Sharply Value Decomposition

Abstract： This paper uses net revenue as a proxy to control firm's unobservable productivity， then estimates variable markup and productivity simultaneously by GMM method. Using 1998—2007 Chinese firmlevel data， we are surprised to find that Chinese firms with higher export density set lower markup， which is not consistent with the literature. Based on Melitz & Ottaviano (2008) model， we find this puzzle lies in the following distinguishing features of Chinese economy. Firstly， there are too many Chinese firms swarm into export market， which brings huge “competitive effect” in that market. Moreover， Chinese domestic market segmentation and export subsidy policy stimulate even low productivity firms to export， this hinders export “selection effect”， and results in “competitive effect” overwhelming “selection effect”， so those low productivity Chinese exporters have to set lower markup in such a competitive market. Furthermore， we find no significant “learning by exporting” effect in high export probability firms， which makes it harder for Chinese exporters to escape their “low markup trap”.
Key Words： Markup; Selection Effect; Competitive Effect; Learning by Exporting; Export Density

Abstract： This paper examines the effects of non-agricultural employment growth on education investment decision at the individual level. Empirical results show that employment opportunities due to export significantly decrease the enrollment rates of high school and college. A one percentage increase in the share of non-agricultural workers of the total labor force decreases high school enrollment among youth aged from 16—18 by 0.17%， and decreases college enrollment among youth aged from 19—21 by 0.26%. Holding other factors constant， these estimates imply that the increase of non-agricultural employment due to export between 1990—2005 decreases the enrollment rates of high school and college by 5.4 and 8.6 percentage points， respectively. There are also substantial differences in the educational effects of employment growth by gender and by hukou status. Comparing to women， the decline of education investment is larger for men. While the enrolment rates of high school and college are both negatively affected by the employment growth for rural students， only the college enrollment is negatively affected by the employment growth for urban students. In contrast， arrival of jobs induced by export increases the high school enrollment of urban students.
Key Words： Export Expansion; Employment Growth; Education Investment Decision

Abstract： We developed the Keynesian model of closed economy for quantitative easing policy， and reveal the crossborder wealth effect on export from quantitative easing through an open macro-economy perspective for the first time. Based on theoretical analysis， we initiate a theoretical model and hypothesis on exporters' heterogeneity in developing countries under the political shock of quantitative easing in developed countries. Meanwhile， we use the detailed firm-product data from Chinese customs and apply difference in difference method to test the behavior of exporters in China under the background of Japanese quantitative easing during 2001—2006. Our results show that， in line with the findings from our theoretical model， quantitative easing in developed countries stimulates the export volume of Chinese firms， especially for foreign invested ones. Meanwhile， quantitative easing increases the export ratio of Chinese foreign invested firms to the developed countries with such policy， which indicates the shock of increasing international capital flow is larger than the shock from exchange rate appreciation. By using PSM to establish the test group and control group， we effectively test the heterogeneity of exporting behavior responds among different types of ownership under the shock of quantitative easing， and derive results in accordance with our theoretical analysis. It's better for our government to be alert about the fluctuation of export volume brought by the implementation and tapering of quantitative easing policies in developed countries， and smooth the negative effect from the aspects of exchange rate and international capital flow.
Key Words： Quantitative Easing; Cross-border Wealth Effect; Export; Enterprise Ownership