Abstract：Mainstream neoclassical theory of growth excludes the dual economy development widely existing in developing countries from its analytical framework. That not only tends to obliterate the contribution of Lewisian development theory but also weakens its own explanatory power on a large number of development phenomena. This paper tries to fill the gap between the growth theory and the real world. Through reviewing literature of growth theories and sewing up empirical findings of economic history， the paper demonstrates that most nations of the economic history have been or are experiencing an accumulation of mass surplus labor in agriculture and therefore forming a dual economy， a process that can be called “Geertz Involution”. In this way， typical economic development of nations， eastern and western， can be stylized as undergoing five types and stages-namely， Malthus poverty trap， Geertz involution， Lewis dual economy development， Lewis turning point， and Solow neoclassical growth. Such a classification of types or stages of economic development can be more complete in theoretical logic and more inclusive in empirical evidence.
Key Words：Dual Economy Development； Economic Growth； Geertz Involution
JEL Classification：O10， O57， N10

Abstract：The thesis proposes Index Incremental Analytic Method to calculate labor allocation effect in China since the reform and opening-up.This method characterizes by proportionally decomposing and distributing the interaction effect between labor reallocation effects and labor input effect and labor productivity effect.Calculation result reflects that labor allocation effect contributes 18.5% to China's economic growth in 1978—2014 and it has large potential in upcoming 10 years. Labor allocation effect will decrease gradually after 2025 and may become a drag on economic growth.
Key Words：Labor Reallocation Effect; Index Incremental Analysis; Growth Accounting
JEL Classification：C43，J24，O47

Abstract：Whether place-based policies are effective or not is a central topic in urban economics. The magnitude of employment multiplier effect is of great importance for local government policies. Using city level employment data from China in 2003—2012， the multiplier effect of manufacturing employment on local service employment is investigated. Regression results from instrumental variable estimations show that manufacturing employments have significantly positive influences on local service employments. Every one percent increase in manufacturing jobs increases the city's service jobs by 0.435%. The multiplier effect is the largest for consumer services. Besides， we find that employment multiplier effect is influenced by urbanization and city scale. Employment multiplier effect only exists in cities with higher urbanization rates and larger city scales. In those less urbanized or smaller cities， however， changes in service employments are not influenced by changes in manufacturing employments.
Key Words：Place-based Policy； Employment Multiplier Effect； Urbanization； Economic Agglomeration
JEL Classification：J08， J23， R12

Abstract：This paper studies the effects of regulations securing equal pay and equal employment in the labor market with gender discrimination. We show that neither of those regulations are Paretoimproving policies. The effect of the regulation securing both equal pay and equal employment is between that of free market and that of the regulation only securing equal pay. The simulation of the model with parameters calibrated to the CFPS data shows that the regulation only securing equal pay increases welfare of merely 38.7% of female labor， while the regulation securing both equal pay and equal employment causes limited negative effect. It follows that the latter regulation is needed to guarantee female rights in the labor market. In circumstances that the substitution elasticity of the mental labor and the physical labor is high or the interest rate is low， free market is better than the regulation only securing equal pay.
Key Words：Gender Gap； Gender Discrimination； Equal Pay； Equal Employment
JEL Classification：J30， J70， K20

Abstract：This paper verifies the role of establishment for individuals in public sector. Using the data from China Household Finance Survey， we examine the differences of income， labor intensity， social security and subjective attitude between regular workers and contracted workers in public sector. And we further investigate the role of Administrative Establishment (AE) and Public Institution Establishment (PIE). The results indicate that compared to regular workers， contracted workers have less income， work for longer time and are more difficult to enjoy retirement pay and housing accumulation funds. Moreover， contracted workers also have lower risk preference and sense of happiness in subjective attitude. And the main reason of people engaged in contracted workers is to exchange current low-income for retirement security in future. The further research show that there are no significant differences between AE and PIE except the former has advantage in income and housing accumulation funds， which highlights the common value of establishment. The conclusions of this paper will provide empirical support for deepening reform on organization establishment and income allocation in China's public sector.
Key Words：Administrative Establishment； Public Institution Establishment； Income Allocation； Individual Attitude； China Household Finance Survey
JEL Classification：J31， J45， J78

Abstract：This paper constructs a multi-stage game model including three kinds of agents like government， state-owned enterprise (SOE) and private enterprise. The equilibrium analysis and numeral simulation results show that strategic externality resulted from the game behaviors makes mixed competition system very different from the private enterprise competition system or the monopolistically SOE system. The strategic externality has fundamentally distorted the resource allocation pattern in the market. The ex-strategy for SOE to maximize the social welfare will be unrealizable， which will deviate from the post result of social optimality. The optimal regulatory mechanism is neither equal to the traditional mechanism which requires SOE to maximize social welfare， nor the mechanism to make SOE acting like private counterparts. Its design should consider the enterprises cost efficiency and the trade-off between SOE's surplus and gain from internalizing strategic externality. The social regulator needs to clarify and commit the regulatory mechanism which is very important for the regulation's effectiveness and market stability. These conclusions are important for regulatory mechanism design on mixed economy， monopoly industry reform and competition policy initiative.
Key Words：Mixed Competition； State-owned Enterprise； Strategic Externality； Regulatory Mechanism Design
JEL Classification：L33， P31

Abstract：Based on a theoretical model and historical facts， this paper studies the effects of two waves of economic globalization since the middle of the nineteenth century on the government size by using the cross-country data over 1850—2009. Our findings are as follows. (1) Before the First World War (1850—1913)， economic openness significantly shrank government size. This can be explained by the government's role as a “night guarder”， who undertook little responsibility for social security. Thus taxation like tariff revenues dominated the change of government size. (2) During the post-war period (1950—2009)， economic openness significantly expended government size， mainly because of the transfer of governments from “night guarders” to “baby-sitters”， who had to increase public spending for building social safety net in all directions， in order to treat external risks and social instability caused by globalization. (3) Evidences from the subsample of the OECD countries confirm the results above. From a view of history， the impact of economic openness on government size is not constant， in which government function plays a key role. Our findings are conducive to scientifically understand some real problems like expansion of government size.
Key Words：Globalization； Economic Openness； Government Size； Government Function
JEL Classification：H11， F69， N70

Abstract：The influx of foreign investment inevitably forces China's domestic firms to exit， and hence decreases the survival probability of the latter. Using Chinese manufacturing firms' data during 2000—2007， we adopt the survival analysis to examine the effect of foreign entry on the survival of Chinese domestic firms. We find that although foreign firms do propel more domestic firms to exit among the same industry through the competition effect， they also help to promote the survival of the local firms through both backward and forward industrial linkages. As we estimate a significantly positive combined effect， it indicates the external shock due to foreign entry is not as big as we usually expect. Compared with SOEs， Chinese private firms are more likely to establish vertical industrial linkages with foreign-invested firms. Generally our findings provide evidence and policy suggestions on how local firms in developing economies adapt themselves to market competition due to foreign entry.
Key Words：Foreign Investment； Duration； Industrial Linkage； Survival Analysis
JEL Classification：F20， L10

Abstract：This paper establishes a new Keynesian DSGE model with capital control and balance sheet of the Central Bank to analyze the key role and interaction of inflow of hot money， capital control， temporary depreciation， disinflation， huge foreign exchange reserve and constraints of the demand and to evaluate their implications to China's economy. We find that the capital control and the temporary depreciation play a key role in promoting China's economy but also lead to a huge inflow of hot money and a huge accumulation of foreign exchange reserve. Although inflow of hot money decreases the magnitude of depreciation and the foreign demand， the adverse effect is offset by the expanding of the domestic demand brought by it. Finally inflow of hot money isn't the main cause of the increase of money issuance.
Key Words：Hot Money； Capital Control； Sterilization； Balance Sheet of the Central Bank
JEL Classification：E52， E58， F31， F32

Abstract：With the rapid development of Internet finance， more and more Internet users with a little money pay more and more attention to the risk that the money would be stolen away， because Internet would facilitate matters if an ill-disposed hacker looks for and discovers a vulnerability in the security mechanism that allows him to break through the authentication， or he is able to exploits some unknown limitations of the security mechanism without the need to know the required users authentication information. These make up of the investors' perceived network security risks. And this attention reflects the status quo of investors' perceived network security risks. This paper investigates whether the investors' perceived network security risks to YuEBao has an effect on the return of Internet finance. We find that more attentions paid to perceived network security risk significantly increase the risk compensation， and more attention from mobile Internet is significantly able to increase the more risk compensation.
Key Words：Internet Finance； Big Data； Network Security Risk Perception； Expectancy Theory； Risk Compensation
JEL Classification：G11， G12， D23

Abstract：This paper studies the influences of ownership on China's quality supervision and inspection by merging data of Chinese national product quality supervision and inspection to the data of Chinese industrial firms. The analysis shows that state-owned enterprises have lower probability of being sampled and inspected， but the influences of ownership on the results of the inspection are basically not significant. Further study also shows that the ownership bias is strengthened by firm size and firm taxes. This implies that the ownership bias is influenced by incentives of local protectionism.
Key Words：Ownership Bias； National Product Quality Supervision and Inspection； Sampling Bias； Local Protectionism
JEL Classification：L51， Z18

Abstract：“We need golden and silver hill as well as clean water and green mountains”. It means China should achieve the Porter effect which states a win-win development of economic and environment in the “New Reforms”. It is the major prerequisite for Porter Hypothesis to promote technology innovation by reasonable and strict environmental policy. This paper evaluates the Porter effect of China's industrial SO2 emissions trading pilot scheme (SETPS) with environmental regulation and other conditions remaining constant. Our findings are that SETPS could play a certain role in relieving the serious configuration inefficiency problem of emission rights， but it failed to achieve the Porter effect in both the short and long term. An inefficient market and a weak environmental regulation hadn't matched a “perfect” SETPS. Efficient market construction and strong environmental regulation to form inside and outside “Double Engines” of market and government are necessary conditions.
Key Words：Emissions Trading； Porter Hypothesis； DEA； Difference-in-Difference
JEL Classification：C31， D24， O47， Q56

Abstract：By using Chinese provincial panel data during 1998—2012， building synergy innovation index and the spatial weight matrix from perspective of the dynamic interregional flow of innovation factors， this paper investigates the effects of synergy innovation and spatial correlation on regional innovation performance with spatial econometric analysis technique. The study finds that in the process of synergy innovation， the science and technology funding from government， the association of industry and university and the association of industry and scientific research institution have significant positive influence on regional innovation performance， while the support from financial institution has a significant negative effect. The dynamic interregional flow of innovation factors promotes both the spatial spillover of knowledge and the performance of regional innovation. Whether we use a static or dynamic spatial econometric model， the results as described above are stable. The conclusions of this paper have key policy on promoting the innovation performance in China through understanding the organization and coordination of regional innovation factors comprehensively.
Key Words：Synergy Innovation； Spatial Correlation； Innovation Performance； Spatial Panel
JEL Classification：O32， O33