Economic Research Journal (Monthly) Vol.40 No.11 November, 2005 |
• Smooting the Business Cycles at a Moderately High Altitude |
Abstrat:The paper analyzes two possible features of Chinas business cycles in the coming 5—8 years:one is that the altitude of the cycles will remain moderately high and the potential growth rate is about 9%,and the other is that the range of the cycles will be smoothed and the moderate growth range will stay between 8%—10%.These two features are so called “possible” just because they contain some certain objective factors on one hand and they have to face future challenges on the other hand.Our paper starts from Chinas current situation in line with Marxs related analysis and synthesizing the ideas of Schumpeters theory of business cycles and modern business cycles theory.Then the paper strongly illuminates the features of the shocks on Chinas current business cycle in terms of its type,formation and impacts,integrating the analyses of long term economic growth and short term business cycles.The policy implications of the paper are that continuing to strengthen and improve the macro-regulation and endeavoring to smooth the business cycle at a moderately high altitude. |
…………………………Liu Shucheng,Zhang Xiaojing and Zhang Ping(10) |
• The Rejuvenating of Homo Economics:A Discussion and Defence on New Synthesis |
Abstrat:The paper tries to provide an explicit characterization for the concept of “New Homo Economicus” rejuvenating in the tide of economic imperialism, thus to correct some misunderstandings held by both advocators and opponents. The main portions of the paper are:to set up some standards for behaviors especially altruism behaviors that could be discussed in the analysis paradigm by introducing some concepts such as “social preference of individual” and “social values of individual” into the discussion of the “Homo Economicus” model;to explain that the degree of rationality bestowed to the agents depends on the context being studied by redefining features of Homo Economicus rational behaviors at different levels;in addition, to study different applicable spheres and limitations of the canonical model of Homo Economicus and its metamorphosis in the theoretical analysis. |
…………………………Yang Chunxue(22) |
• Analysis on Relationship of Deepening Financial Intermediation and Economic Growth in China |
Abstrat:Financial intermediation-growth nexus is a widely studied topic in the literature of development economics. Deepening financial intermediation is usually believed to promote economic growth in two ways, through mobilizing more investments, and through raising the return of financial resources, which raises the productivity. Using provincial panel data of China, this paper examines if the productivity growth is accounted for by the deepening process of financial development. After constructing an appropriate measurement of financial depth, this paper finds a significant and positive nexus existing between financial deepening and productivity growth. Given the fact that there is a divergent pattern of financial deepening between coastal and inland provinces, this finding also helps explain the rising regional disparity in China, as the latter is believed to be highly associated with regional variation of productivity. |
…………………………Zhang Jun and Jin Yu(34) |
• The Effects of Government Productive Expenditure on the Rate of Output to Capital |
Abstrat:This paper uses the functions of government expenditure—the functions of governments supply pure public goods to analyze the effects of government productive expenditure on the before-tax and after-tax rate of output to capital. Our analysis suggests that there is an optimal government productive expenditure scale that it can make the rate of output to capital reach maximal level. By empirically analyzing the influences of national fiscal productive expenditure on the rate of output to capital, we find that the relationship between national fiscal expenditure for capital construction and the rate of output to capital is weakly positive, but the relationship between fiscal expenditure for science or education and the rate of output to capital is strongly positive in China. However, by empirically analyzing the influences of local government fiscal productive expenditure on the rate of output to capital, we find that the relationship between fiscal expenditure for capital construction and the rate of output to capital is weakly negative, and the relationship between fiscal expenditure for education and the rate of output to capital is strongly positive, but the relationship between fiscal expenditure for science and the after-tax rate of output to capital is strongly negative. |
…………………………Zhao Zhiyun and Lü Bingyang(46) |
• An Empirical Research on the Relationship of Economic Institutional Arrangement,International Trade and Economic Growth |
Abstrat:In this paper, the relationship of economic institutional arrangement, international trade and economic growth has been analyzed. The result reveals in terms of the whole economic institutional arrangements, the trade policies are more sensitive to trade flow and the property rights are more sensitive to Hi-tech products export. Meanwhile, through the analysis between economic institutional arrangements and economic growth, we also find the property rights are more sensitive to economic growth, and the property rights and government intervention are more sensitive to human capital growth and technological development. |
…………………………Pan Xiangdong,Liao Jinzhong and Lai Mingyong(57) |
• China Component in International Income Inequality:Controlling Population Factors Approach |
Abstrat:The contribution of China is the main engine for decline of international income inequality in 1980s and 1990s. It is over 100 percent some years. By applying the method of controlling populaion factors, it is revealed that though economic growth is the major reason of change of China component, and population is the minor, but it is important. The contribution of population growth to change of China component fluctuates between 318% and 435% in 1980 and 1990s, and that of economic growth does between 565% and 682%. Therefore, economic growth of China is the main reason, but population growth also plays an important role for decreasing of international income inequality. |
…………………………Jiang Zhiyong(68) |
• An Analysis on the Determinants of Public Good Investment in Chinas Rural Comunities |
Abstrat:In this paper we provide two hypotheses and give our empirical analyses. Through using a unique and nationally representative data set we create a profile of Chinas investment at the village level. In particular, this paper tries to understand the factors that caused heterogeneity of public goods investment in rural communities across the country. According to our analysis, factors that impacts rural public goods investments include not only the features of communities environment, but also the targets of government. For example, villages with more TVEs or small business households tends to invest more on public goods, while villages with more migrant workers working outside tends to invest less onto their public goods. By analyzing the determinants of funding coming from township and above governments, it is not difficult to see a preferred targeting effort on concentrating public investment resources on poor, remote and environmental fragile areas. Thus to a larger extend would help with bridging the gaps between regions. However, the study also presee challenges ahead in terms of how to further increase public investment in rural communities. |
…………………………Zhang Linxiu,Luo Renfu,Liu Chengfang and Scott Rozelle(76) |
• Research on the Top Management Governance Evaluation Index and Empirical Study on Relationship between the Index and Governance Performance:Based on Corporate Governance Evaluation of Public-listed Companies in China |
Abstrat:The study on corporate governance evaluation and index is a worldwide topic.The top management plays the core role in the corporate governance evaluation system.This paper,on the basis of the review of the top management governance evaluation in China and abroad,constructs the evaluation index to measure and assess top management governance of the public-listed companies in China,and makes an empirical study on the governance situation of 931 Chinese public-listed companies from three foundational dimensions,namely,appointment and removal system,execution guarantee system,motivation and regulation system,and from the perspective of nature of the biggest shareholder.Meanwhile,the paper constructs the comprehensive performance evaluation system of the public-listed companies by reviewing the efficiency of the companies from the point of firm optimization and safety,and makes a comprehensive and regression research on the two evaluation indices.The evaluation result shows that the overall top management governance in China is poor.The enhancement of the top management governance will improve the governance performance. |
…………………………Li Weian and Zhang Guoping(87) |
• A Study on Prediction Model for Changes of Financial Status Based on Value-creation and Corporate Governance |
Abstrat:About 70% of the listed companies in China are classified as value-damage firms. Since the companies damage the value of shareholders before damaging the value of creditors, by sampling 540 firms with EVA s are negative for the successive 2 years in China for the period of 1998 to 2003, this paper examines what factors affect the changes of financial status based on a new theoretical frame of value-creation. Then, the authors used Ordinal Dependent Model to analyze the effects of financial variables, corporate governance variables and investor-protection variables on the changes of financial status. Finally, the authors estimated a prediction model for the changes of financial status financial recovery, financial improvement, financial maintenance, financial worsening, financial distress for the companies which damaged the value of shareholders by Neural Network of Levenberg-Marquardt Back-propagation. |
…………………………Wu Chaopeng and Wu Shinong(99) |
• An Explanation for“Educated Unemployment”in China |
Abstrat:The experience of many countries shows that “educated unemployment” often emerges in the course of educations fast development.In recent years,this issue begins to appear in China.This article explores the reason of “educated unemployment” on the basis of extended job-search model.According to our results,to a great extent,“educated unemployment” in China is caused by the institutional segmentation in the labor market.So it is necessary to clear up institutional segmentation in the labor market stage by stage,encourage graduates to obtain employment in secondary labor market such as rural and western areas,take the development of labor market into consideration when making the development plan of high education. |
…………………………Lai Desheng and Tian Yongpo(111) |
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