The Non-linear Contribution of Net Export to Growth：Empirical Evidence from China’s Provincial Panel Data from 1995 throug
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| Title | The Non-linear Contribution of Net Export to Growth：Empirical Evidence from China’s Provincial Panel Data from 1995 throug
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| Author | Gu Kejian and Chen Zhongfu |
| Organization | Renmin University of China; University of International Business and Economics |
| Email | gukejian@rbs.org.cn；uibesitechen@126.com |
| Key Words | Net Export；Growth Accounting；Open Economy；Econometrics |
| Abstract | The previous studies on the econometrical nexus between net export and economic growth were base on the demand side of national income accounting, and were always considered to be linear as well. The paper attempted to extend the economic growth accounting model by bringing into trade related factors from supply side. Based on mathematical theories and methodology, multilevel criteria to identify the nonlinearity between net export and GDP were constructed. Based on our developed theoretical model and serial and cross-sectional correlation panel data estimation, the provincial panel data from 1995 through 2011 was used to empirically examine the nonlinear nexus and regional heterogeneity between net export and economic growth. According to the mathematical features of nonlinearity, the critical transition point about net export on economic growth and closed intervals to promote economic growth were detailed investigated. The results also indicated that economic openness level determined the regional differentials from net export on economic growth intervals. The historical path of net export driving economic growth was also extended. The results imply that to enlarge import will not only promote international trade to be more balanced but also be positive to economic growth. |
| Serial Number | WP881 |
| Time | 2015-05-29 |
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