利率市场化改革如何影响了农村正规金融对非正规金融的替代性？
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| Title | The Study of the Impact of Interest Rate Liberalization on Substitution of Formal and Informal Finance in Rural Areas
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| 作者 | 许月丽 刘志媛 周杭 |
| Author | Xu Yueli,Liu Zhiyuan and Zhou Hang |
| 作者单位 | 广东外语外贸大学；北北方学院理学院；浙江理工大学经管学院 |
| Organization | Guangdong University of Foreign Studies; Hebei North University;Zhejiang Sci-Tech University |
| 作者Email | xuyueli72@163.com；liuzy_stats@163.com |
| 中文关键词 | 二元性 替代 技术内生效应 |
| Key Words | Duality; Substitution; Effect of Endogenous Technology |
| 内容提要 | 在提出了技术内生效应，从而拓展了传统的名义收益效应和借款人结构类型效应之后，本文研究了渐近利率市场化对农村正规与非正规金融替代关系的影响。文章提出的新的理论框架认为，利率市场化改革会诱致农村正规金融在利率价格调整的直接名义收益效应、正规金融机构解决信息不对称与监督问题的技术内生效应、农户类型异质的借款人结构类型效应三者之间，进行资金供给决策权衡，三种效应的此消彼长过程决定了农村正规金融对非正规金融的替代过程呈倒“U”形变化轨迹。实证结果进一步表明，利率市场化改革对正规与非正规金融替代性影响的关键因素，不是利率价格变动本身的名义收益效应，而是与信息不对称问题解决密切相关的借款人结构类型效应与技术内生效应，特别是技术内性效应。研究的政策含义是，应谨慎评估农村利率市场化改革的效果，包括普惠金融与金融精准扶贫的有效性，取决于相关的政策是否有助于解决农村严重信息不对称问题的新的激励机制设计。 |
| Abstract | This thesis which expands the effect of nominal income and of structure type by the effect of endogenous technology, discusses the impact of interest rate liberalization on the substitution of formal and informal finance in rural areas. The new theoretical framework proposed in this thesis holds that the reform of interest rate liberalization will induce rural formal finance to balance the decision of funds supply by taking account of the effect of nominal income caused by interest rate price adjustment, the effect of borrower’s structure type based on farmer’s heterogeneity, and the effect of endogenous technology on solving the problem of information asymmetry and supervision. The antagonistic relationship of these three effects dictated that the substitution process of rural formal finance to informal finance presents an inverted "U" shape. The empirical results further indicate that instead of the effect of nominal income caused by interest rate price adjustment, the effect of borrower’s structure type, especially the effect of endogenous technology are the influencing factors of the substitution of formal and informal finance in rural areas. In terms of policy implications, the reform of interest rate liberalization in rural areas including the effectiveness of inclusive finance and targeted financial poverty alleviation should be deliberated estimated. And whether relative policies are conducive to establish a effective inspiriting mechanism to solve the problem of information asymmetry in rural areas plays a decisive role in evaluation. |
| 文章编号 | WP1374 |
| 登载时间 | 2019-05-30 |
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