养老金“双轨制”并轨宏观效果评估
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| Title | The Welfare Effect of Dual-Track Pension System Unification
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| 作者 | 郑春荣 宁磊 |
| Author | Zheng Chunrong and Ning Lei |
| 作者单位 | 上海财经大学 |
| Organization | Shanghai University of Finance and Economics |
| 作者Email | zhengchr@mail.shufe.edu.cn；ninglei107@126.com |
| 中文关键词 | 养老金“双轨制” 社会福利 生命周期模型 |
| Key Words | Dual-Track Pension System; Social Welfare; Life Cycle Model |
| 内容提要 | 本文通过建立一个大型一般均衡世代交叠模型，并根据中国经济数据来校准模型的主要参数，进而利用反事实实验方法测算了养老金“双轨制”并轨的福利效果。本文的研究发现，“双轨制”并轨可以显著缩小公务员和企业职工间巨大的福利差距：低学历公务员的福利水平比低学历企业职工由并轨前的高约40.5%下降至并轨后的2.24%；而高学历公务员的福利水平比高学历企业职工由并轨前的高约34.8%降至-0.7%。其中“缴费端并轨”（即公务员与企业职工同样缴纳养老保险）比“待遇端并轨”（即公务员与企业职工享受同样的退休金待遇）更显著地缩小了企业职工和公务员之间的福利差距。在完全取消养老金“双轨制”的情况下，对高学历公务员略有不公，但对低学历公务员没有不公平。 |
| Abstract | We build a dynamic general equilibrium life-cycle model; calibrate the model parameters using China data and use counter-factual experiments to study the welfare effect of the reform of Chinese dual-track pension system. We find that the end of China’s dual-track pension system reduce the welfare gap between public servants and urban workers: the welfare of low-skill public servants is only 2.24% higher than low-skill urban worker not 40.5% higher before; the welfare of high-skill public servants is only -0.7% higher than high-skill urban worker not 34.8% higher before. If public servants paid pension tax or received pension insurance as urban workers separately, the welfare gap between public servants and urban workers could be narrowed down significantly, especially under the former way. If there were no the dual-track pension system, it would be slightly unfair to high-skill civil servants but would not be unfair to low-skill civil servants. |
| 文章编号 | wp1294 |
| 登载时间 | 2018-09-26 |
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