财政补贴的产业结构效应
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| Title | The Effects of Fiscal Subsidy on Industrial Structure
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| 作者 | 钱宗鑫 郭庆旺 李戎 |
| Author | Qian Zongxin,Guo Qingwang and Li Rong |
| 作者单位 | 中国人民大学财政金融学院 |
| Organization | RENMIN UNIVERSITY of CHINA |
| 作者Email | qianzx@ruc.edu.cn；guoqw@ruc.edu.cn；lirong.sf@ruc.edu.cn， |
| 中文关键词 | 财政补贴 产业结构 经济增长 |
| Key Words | subsidy, industrial structure, economic growth |
| 内容提要 | 本文首先基于Acemoglu和Guerrieri（2008）两部门一般均衡模型，构建一个资本深化导致的内生性产业转型模型，分析政府通过财政补贴手段支持第三产业发展的倾斜政策，对产业结构调整和宏观经济运行的影响。然后，基于上市公司数据，利用面板计量模型，检验理论模型的分析结论。理论分析和实证检验的结果都表明，在短期内，政府的这种产业倾斜政策加速了生产要素向第三产业的流动，提高了第三产业产值比重，同时也在一定程度上扭曲了资源配置，降低了第二产业的企业产出。因此，第三产业的财政补贴政策的确有助于产业结构的调整，但同时也会降低经济增长速度。在供给侧结构性改革过程中，实现“调结构”和“稳增长”这一双重重任的财政补贴政策应作适当调整，即适当放缓第三产业的财政补贴增长速度，将一部分用于第三产业的财政补贴转移到第二产业中具有高技术含量、高附加值以及环境友好型企业。 |
| Abstract | In this paper, we build a model of capital deepening-led industrial structural transition, based on the two-sector model of Acemoglu and Guerrieri (2008). Using this model, we analyze the effects of fiscal subsidy which is biased towards the service industry on industrial structure and economic growth. Then, we use the data on publicly listed companies and panel data models to test the theory. Both our theory and empirics suggest that the subsidy policy does attract factors to move into the service industry, which increases the output share of the service industry. But this policy also distorts the allocation of resources, and reduces the output of the manufacturing sector. Hence, the subsidy biased towards the service industry is helpful for industrial structural changes, but also has negative impacts on economic growth. |
| 文章编号 | WP1218 |
| 登载时间 | 2017-09-05 |
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