我国城镇劳动者退休行为研究及延迟退休的福利效果
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| Title | The Study of the Retirement Behavior and the Welfare Analysis of Postponing Retirement Age
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| 作者 | 封进 韩旭 何立新 |
| Author | Feng Jin,Han Xu and He Lixin |
| 作者单位 | 复旦大学经济学院 |
| Organization | Fudan University |
| 作者Email | jfeng@fudan.edu.cn；14110680008@fudan.edu.cn；lixinhe@fudan.edu.cn |
| 中文关键词 | 期权价值 延迟退休 福利效果 |
| Key Words | Option Value; Postponing Retirement; Welfare |
| 内容提要 | 本文探讨影响我国城镇企业劳动者退休决策的因素，着重讨论养老保险制度的激励作用，采用扩展的期权价值模型，综合考虑工资、养老金和闲暇的影响。基于中国城镇住户调查数据，结合现行养老保险政策，本文计算劳动者工作的期权价值，作为对养老金政策激励作用的度量指标。对我国劳动者退休行为的实证分析表明，其退休行为受到期权价值的显著影响，期权价值越大，劳动者的退休概率越小。本文进一步模拟了延迟退休政策对于劳动力供给和劳动者福利的影响。延迟退休将通过改变劳动者的期权价值对其退休决策产生影响。在当前的缴费和待遇规则下,延迟退休增加了大部分劳动者的期权价值，使他们的福利得到改善，减少了他们的退休概率；但收入水平低、失业概率高的个体期权价值并未发生变化。 |
| Abstract | This paper analyses factors that affect the retirement behavior of labors in China. We focus on the incentive provided by the pension system. Based on the Option Value Model, we extend it and use the data from UHS(Urban Household Survey of China) to calculate the option value of individuals. Using Probit model, we find for an individual who is working the probability of retiring at an certain age decreases with the option value of continuing to work. Thus the incentive from pension system affect the retirement behavior of labors. Further we use the result of the empirical work to simulate the impact of postponing retirement age. We find that the policy of postponing retirement affect people at different extent from the view of option value change. Although most people are willing to delay retirement because of the increased option value, those with low income and high probability of losing will have little increase in their option value. Thus from the point of option value, the policy will not bring improvement to their welfare and they will be affected little by the policy. |
| 文章编号 | WP867 |
| 登载时间 | 2015-04-14 |
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