基于零利率下限约束的宏观政策传导研究
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| Title | Operation Mechanism of Macro-Policy Based on Zero Lower Bound
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| 作者 | 马理 娄田田 |
| Author | Ma Li and Lou Tiantian |
| 作者单位 | 武汉大学经济与管理学院 |
| Organization | Economics and Management School of Wuhan University |
| 作者Email | manny@whu.edu.cn；2009302350046@whu.edu.cn |
| 中文关键词 | 货币政策 财政政策 零利率下限约束 传导机理 |
| Key Words | Monetary Policy; Fiscal Policy; Zero Lower Bound; Operation Mechanism |
| 内容提要 | 在经济危机中，以美国为代表的西方发达国家纷纷通过降低利率的手段来促进本国经济复苏、引导实体经济发展，这导致了超低利率环境的出现。但是在实际中，名义利率并不能降到零以下，当名义利率触及零下限时会导致经济的剧烈波动，因此在零利率下限的约束下研究宏观调控政策的传导机理与传导效果具有重要的现实意义。本文构建了一个包含零利率下限约束的DSGE模型，在市场出清的条件下，通过数理建模、脉冲响应分析与仿真模拟的技术手段，分有零利率下限约束与无零利率下限约束两种情况，对比研究了由货币政策与财政政策组成的宏观调控政策体系的实施效果。结论显示：无零利率下限约束的模型不能充分描绘真实的经济危机状况与政策效果；在零利率下限约束的超低利率环境中，常规货币政策的有效性将进一步降低，而财政政策的刺激作用会加强。并基于此提出了相关的政策建议。 |
| Abstract | Western developed countries such as the United States lowered interest rate to promote economic recovery in the crisis. While interest rate can’t be under zero in reality, analyzing operation mechanism of macro-policy based on zero lower bound would be of great significance. This paper establishes a DSGE model including zero lower bound under the assumption of markets clearing. By means of mathematical modeling, impulse response analysis and simulation, we compare the operation mechanism of macro-policy composed of monetary and fiscal policy with and without zero lower bound. The conclusions show that model without zero lower bound can’t depict the economic situation and policy effect in the crisis; while under the zero lower bound, the effectiveness of monetary policy was further reduced, and the effectiveness of fiscal stimulus was enhanced. Finally the related policy proposal is put forward. |
| 文章编号 | WP702 |
| 登载时间 | 2014-09-16 |
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