中国银行业系统性风险：自我消化和长期效应
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| Title | Bank Systemic Risk of China:Self-digestion and Its Long-term Effects
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| 作者 | 童中文 范从来 解晓洋 |
| Author | Tong Zhongwen,Fan Conglai and Xie Xiaoyang |
| 作者单位 | 南京师范大学商学院;南京大学商学院;中国农业银行 |
| Organization | Financial Engineering Research Institute and Business School of Nanjing Normal University;Business School of Nanjing University; Hainan branch of Agricutural Bank of China |
| 作者Email | lrhasia@163.com;fancl@nju.edu.cn;380747675@qq.com |
| 中文关键词 | 银行系统性风险 网络演化 宏观压力测试 自我消化 中国金融系统性风险之谜 |
| Key Words | Bank Systemic Risk; Netting Evolution; Macro Pression Test; Self-digestion; The Mystery of Financial Systemic Risk in China |
| 内容提要 | 银行业系统性风险是个连续累积、演化的过程，主要经由信用和信息渠道完成，但本质上是通过流动性波动的形式进行的。我国银行业系统性风险一直较高，2003年前的不良资产率一直很高，2003年后的银行业流动性波动剧烈且趋于恶化。宏观压力测试表明，在轻度、中度和重度的情景下，我国银行业系统性风险都较高程度地存在且渐趋严重，但市场内在的风险“自我消化”机制和银行软预算约束对风险的“自我消化”，使我国短期内并没有发生金融危机，而银行软预算约束引致的信贷膨胀、资源配置低效和激励扭曲以及道德风险却在长期内致使中国银行体系脆弱性增强，系统性风险增加。 |
| Abstract | Bank systemic risk is a continuous process of the economic fluctuation’s accumulation and evolution by the way of the story and credit. But all of these focus on the liquidity fluctuate. The bank systemic risk of China is always high consisting in the higher non-performing loan ratio before 2003 and worsening liquidity by macro pression test. And the self-digestion risk avoids the financial crisis in short, but it brings about the long-term effect including credit expanding, distorting of resources allocating and encouraging and moral risk which are making the bank system more and more fragile. Then the bank systemic risk is growing more severe. |
| 文章编号 | WP685 |
| 登载时间 | 2014-09-04 |
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