人口结构与国际贸易
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| Title | Demography and International Trade
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| 作者 | 姚洋 田巍 余淼杰 周羿 |
| Author | Yao Yang, Tian Wei, Yu Miaojie and Zhou Yi |
| 作者单位 | 北京大学国家发展研究院中国经济研究中,北京大学光华管理学院应用经济系,美国伯克利加州大学人口系,北京大学国家发展研究院中国经济研究中心 |
| Organization | CCER; GSM; University of California, Berkeley; CCER |
| 作者Email | yyao@ccer.edu.cn,wei.tian08@gmail.com,yizhou.ccer@gmail.com,mjyu@ccer.edu.cn |
| 中文关键词 | 国际贸易 劳动人口比 引力方程 |
| Key Words | International trade; Working-age Ratio; Gravity Equation |
| 内容提要 | 人口结构是否会影响国际贸易？一方面，高劳动人口比例会使出口国产出增加，从而增加出口；另一方面，高劳动人口比例也会给进口国带来更多的劳动收入，从而增加进口。利用176个国家从1970年到2006年的大样本面板数据，并控制多边抵制等因素，在引入劳动人口比之后，对贸易引力方程的回归分析支持了上述理论预测，而且结果在不同的计量方法和模型设定下仍是稳健的。对中国和印度的对比发现，如果两个国家的劳动人口比对调，则中国的出口将下降30%, 而印度的出口将增加30%。这些结果对理解中国出口的快速增长具有重要的理论和现实意义。 |
| Abstract | Does demographic structure affect trade? On the one hand, a high working-age ratio in the exporting country can generate more output and hence lead to more export. On the other hand, a high working-age ratio in the importing country implies higher labor income and hence leads to more import. In this paper, we analyze the effect of demographic structure on trade by augmenting the gravity equation with the working-age ratio. Using a large panel dataset of 176 countries for the period 1970-2006 and controlling for multilateral resistance, we find empirical evidence consistent with our theoretical predictions. The finding is robust to different econometric methods and different specifications. A comparison between China and India shows that China’s export would decline by 30% and India’s export would increase by 30% if the two countries switched their working-age ratios. |
| 文章编号 | WP329 |
| 登载时间 | 2012-08-13 |
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