对近代中国50年GDP的估算(1887~1936) 阅读全文
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Title | The Estimation of 50 Years’ GDP in Modern China
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作者 | 刘巍 陈昭 |
Author | Liu Wei Chen Zhao |
作者单位 | 广东外语外贸大学WTO与广东经贸研究中心 |
Organization | Guangdong University of Foreign Studies |
作者Email | ssxx1975@mail.gdufs.edu.cn |
中文关键词 | 近代中国 GDP 1887~1936年 估算方法 |
Key Words | Modern China GDP 1887~1936 estimation method |
内容提要 | 20世纪30年代~1997年,中外学者对近代中国个别年份的GDP做了估算,在方法上都属“会计核算”,且由于各家学者所见资料不同,往往对同一年份估值差距较大。在前辈成果的基础上,利用“计量推断”方法,我们曾在柯布—道格拉斯生产函数和总供求理论框架下估算了1913~1930年的GDP。现又利用进口函数估算了1888~1912年的GDP数据。这样一来,就构建了近代中国50年(1887~1936)年的GDP时序数据,其中的41个观测点数据是我们利用计量经济学方法估算的。 |
Abstract | Chinese and western scholars estimated individual year’s GDP in Modern China since the 1930s to 1997 with the method of accounting calculation. The estimations of the same year had a gap when compared because of the material used. We have ever estimated the GDPs of 1913~1930 in the theoretical framework of Cobb-Douglass productive function and aggregate supply and demand by use of econometrics inference on the basis of the predecessors’research results. The paper estimates the GDPs in 1888~1912 by use of import function. After that, we have possessed time series GDPs in 1887~1936, among which 41 data we have estimated by use of econometrics method. |
文章编号 | wp1 |
登载时间 | 2010-10-15 |
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